ESPN Prediction Model Predicts Lions vs. 49ers in NFC Championship

For the first time since the 1991 season, and for just the second time in franchise history, the Detroit Lions are in the NFC Championship. Sunday night at 6:30 p.m., the Lions will kick off the game that will decide the NFC representative in Super Bowl LVIII when they face the No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers.

The game proves to not be a particularly easy one for Detroit. After all, the 49ers are widely regarded to be the best team in the NFL when looking at their roster sheet as well as what they've accomplished through the 2023 season. Not to mention, the Lions will be on the road for the first time this postseason after giving the fans at Ford Field the first two playoff wins in the 22-year history of the stadium.

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The 49ers are relatively healthy, with only star wide receiver Deebo Samuel's status up in the air for the contest with a left shoulder injury. Of course, the 49ers had to escape their only playoff game against the Green Bay Packers in a tight 24-21 win where the 49ers needed 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to seal the victory, taking the right to host the NFC Championship away from the Lions.

All things considered, the Lions are fairly heavy underdogs heading into the game. At the time of this writing, the 49ers are a full-touchdown favorite according to DraftKings after opening at -6.5.

The sportsbooks aren't the only thing counting out the Lions in the championship game. ESPN's Football Power Index Matchup Predictor currently gives the 49ers a 74.1% chance of victory, leaving the Lions with just a 25.9% chance of taking the game in an upset.

Of the four remaining teams, the Lions have the worst percentage chance to win the Super Bowl. The 49ers have a 41.8% chance of winning the Lombardi trophy, while the Baltimore Ravens have a 33.5% chance, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a 16% chance, leaving the Lions with just an 8.6% chance of winning it all.

Of course, some weight may be given to the unprecedented nature of the Lions reaching this stage of the tournament. They are the only team remaining without a Super Bowl appearance, let alone a win, in the history of the Big Game. All three other teams remaining have reached the Super Bowl at least twice since 2000, with the Ravens and Chiefs each winning twice.